Dry bulk market: Japanese demand for iron ore continues to decline

IThe demand for Rune ore from Japan has been steadily declining over the previous few years, even earlier than the pandemic and to this point, 2023 is proving to be no exception. In its newest weekly report, shipbroker Banchero Costa mentioned that “2023 has to this point been a optimistic yr for international iron ore commerce. From January to June 2023, international shipments of iron ore elevated +3.9% year-on-year to 761.0 million tons.” , up from 732.5 in the identical interval in 2022. Additionally it is barely greater than the 755.1mt loaded in Jan-June 2021, which was the final all-time document.Exports from Australia elevated +2.8% y/y in Jan-June to June 2023 to achieve 448.1 million tons, a brand new all-time document.Exports from Brazil additionally elevated +7.3% year-on-year in January-June 2023 to 164.7 million tons from 153.6 million tons in January-June 2022, and in addition Barely above 163.8mt in Jan-June 2021. Volumes from South Africa have been down -4.6% y/y to 27.7mt From Canada, export volumes have been up 5.5% y/y to 24.5mt in Jan 2023. India additionally elevated by 39.3% year-on-year to 17.8 million tons.”

Based on the shipbroker, “Demand was weak in every single place besides mainland China. China’s iron ore imports rose +9.2% year-on-year to 562.2mt in January-June 2023, a document excessive. EU imports fell by 18.1% YoY to 34.8Mt in January-June 2023.Iron ore imports to Japan decreased -11.6percentYoY in Jan-June 2023 to 42.4Mt Volumes in South Korea decreased -12.5% % yr on yr to achieve 32.8 million tons.Japan is the second largest importer of iron ore on the planet, after mainland China, and forward of the European Union and South Korea.

Supply: Panchero Costa

Banshiro Costa famous that “from January to December 2022, Japan accounted for six.0% of world seaborne iron ore shipments. Iron ore imports to Japan have declined steadily over time, even earlier than Covid-19. Japan’s imports of iron ore have declined Iron within the twelve months of 2020 by -13.3% year-on-year to 86.3mt, from 99.5mt in 2019. This itself was down by -9.1% from 109.5mt in 2018. In 2021, it rebounded Volumes in Japan fairly strongly, up +13.7% yoy to 98.1mt Nonetheless, this was decrease than the 99.5mt Japan imported in 2019, and considerably lower than the 109.5mt imported in 2018. Relating to By 2022, the primary half of the yr was nonetheless roughly flat, however the second half slowed down once more.From January to June 2022, Japan imported 48.0 million tons of iron ore, down -1.2% yr on yr from 48.5 million tons In the identical interval of 2021. Nonetheless, the second half of 2022 recorded solely 42.6 million tons, which was -14.1% annual lower.

In the meantime, “within the first half of 2023, this downward development continued. In January 2023, Japan imported solely 42.4 million tons of iron ore, down -11.6% year-on-year over the identical interval final yr. Of Fascinating to notice that as much as 91% of Japan’s iron ore imports are carried on Capesize tonnage.8% on Submit-Panamax tonnage, and 1% on Supramaxes.By way of sources of iron ore imports to Japan, issues are fairly predictable. Australia stays by far Japan’s largest exporter, accounting for 67.3% of Japan’s imports this yr.Volumes from Australia to Japan within the first half of this yr fell -12.4% year-on-year to twenty-eight.6m tonnes.

Supply: Panchero Costa

The second largest supply of iron ore imports for Japan is Brazil, accounting for a share of 11.4%. Shipments from Brazil to Japan additionally fell this yr, down -13.9% year-on-year to 4.8 million tons within the first six months of 2023, from 5.6 million tons in the identical interval in 2022. The third largest provider is Canada with a 7.1% share. Volumes from Canada to Japan decreased -11.8% YoY to three.0Mt in H1 2023. Shipments from the Philippines elevated +7.6percentYoY to 2.9Mt. Volumes from South Africa to Japan decreased by -4.9% year-on-year to 1.7 million tons within the first half of 2023.”
Nikos Rosanoglu, Hellenic Transport Information Worldwide

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