tThe Greek-owned fleet grew in measurement via 2022, however as new constructing deliveries dwindled, so did its age. In reality, life expectancy is now at its highest level up to now decade. Within the final revealed report from Petrofin Analysis, a comparatively small tonnage improve of three% was famous for the Greek fleet. In absolute numbers, the fleet has elevated by 286 models of every kind and sizes. This has resulted in a lower in common vessel measurement and a rise in fleet life by simply over a 12 months.
Tonnage and measurement of all varieties of vessels elevated by 2.8% whereas the variety of such vessels rose to six,409 from 6,123. Consequently, the typical quantity decreased to 72.5 thousand dwt. Age additionally rose to 14.1 years, one thing not seen since 2014. The story right here could also be that the Greek house owners have proven a choice for used tonnage, as new construct choices will not be made simply given new applied sciences but to be decided will lead the fleet to zero emissions by 2050
The variety of Greek corporations fell to 599, reversing the gradual rise of the previous three years. In 2021, there have been 607 Greek corporations, up from a low of 588 in 2018 however down from an all-time excessive in 1998. The final development of consolidation continues.
By way of firm measurement, the variety of ship corporations over 25 continued to rise to 56 in 2022, up from 54 in 2021 (Chart 3), the best quantity ever. Tonnage elevated by 18.17 million tons from 2021.
Over Mt decreased by 4 to 78, in comparison with 82 in 2021, to 80 in 2020, and 81 in 2019. Their share of the fleet additionally decreased barely to 78.3% in comparison with 79% in 2021. Share of 80% From the fleet millionaires are nonetheless an enormous barrier.
The variety of corporations working very younger fleets (0-9 years) continues its downward development, this time down from 100 to 99, once more at 2008-2009 ranges. This displays the suspicion that Newbuildings demand lie leading to increased common fleet age.
The rise continues in age beginning in 2018. The overall age of all the Greek fleet in 2022 was 14.1, in comparison with 13 in 2021, 13.2 in 2020, 12.2 in 2019 and 12.08 in 2018. As proven above , we discover a slowdown in a) new constructing deliveries, b) market tonnage acquisitions and c) scrapping discount.
The continued development of the Greek fleet is mirrored within the newest figures and this development is predicted to proceed.
The Greek fleet of every kind and sizes of vessels elevated by 286 vessels in 2022. Of those, 185 vessels of every kind are over 20,000 DWT. These vessels represented a rise of 12.2 million deadweight tons. It is usually managed by corporations lower than 2021, 402 lower than 406 corporations in 2021.
The dry bulk fleet (vessels over 20,000 dwt – Chart 6) gained 97 models, which is effectively beneath the 183 vessels added in 2021 that adopted a lack of 21 vessels throughout 2020. This can be a versatile market that responds shortly to market circumstances.
After sharp development with the addition of 60 vessels in 2021, 2022 has been fairly flat with solely 2 containers added to the big container fleet (vessels over 20,000 tonnes – Chart 7). The container market moved cautiously via 2022.
The massive tanker fleet (vessels of over 20,000 dwt – Chart 8) confirmed slight development with the addition of 5 models. The relative stability within the rise within the age of the tanker fleet reveals some vital inside changes within the fleet, which saved the age of the fleet at 10.23 years, roughly equal to 2021.
The LNG fleet remained unchanged.
The large LPG continues its regular development, not a lot when it comes to tonnage, however as a lot within the sale of outdated models and the acquisition of smaller models.
Tonnage and measurement of all varieties of vessels elevated by 2.8% whereas the variety of such vessels elevated to six,409 from 6,123. Consequently, the typical quantity decreased to 72.5 thousand dwt. Age additionally rose to 14.1 years, one thing not seen since 2014. The story right here could also be that the Greek house owners have proven a choice for used tonnage, as new construct choices will not be made simply in mild of recent applied sciences but to be decided that can lead the fleet to zero emissions by 2050
In its evaluation, Petrofin Analysis stated that “in 2022, the Greek fleet grew however, as anticipated, at a slower tempo of two.8% when it comes to DWT or an increase of 286 vessels. There was additionally a notable slowdown in S&P exercise and scrap gross sales. Consequently, Omar elevated Fleet down by 1.1 yr.Greek firm numbers nonetheless hover across the 600 mark.This determine is affected by economies of scale and market situation in addition to cancellations/gross sales of outdated fleets but in addition by rising new gamers with development potential.
Notably, the smaller fleet measurement confirmed the biggest decline in numbers in comparison with the medium to bigger fleets that continued to develop. The highest 70 Greek fleets now account for greater than 75% of the full, whereas the variety of fleets over 1 million dwt account for 78% of the full.
For greater than 20,000 vessels of DWT quantity, we be aware that dry bulk skilled a rise in complete DWT, within the variety of vessels and within the variety of corporations working within the sector, however a modest rise in fleet age. The container phase has been flat in numbers with common age additionally up.
It was the identical with tankers besides that the typical age of that sector’s fleet didn’t look like rising.
The LNG phase continued to point out progress and indicators of consolidation with modest will increase in vessel depend and complete DWT, however decreases in working comps. Fleet age has additionally elevated however stays at a really low stage of 5.7 years.
The LPG sector additionally confirmed modest development in vessel numbers, complete DWT, and a lower in common age to 7.15 years.
Apparently, the variety of fleets with a mean age of 0-9 years continued to say no from a peak of 189 in 2015 to 99 final 12 months. That is to be anticipated as the general Greek fleet is older however the primary purpose might be attributable to a slowdown in new constructing deliveries and a declining order e book from its peak in 2015. The development clearly reveals that in 2022 most house owners remained skeptical about investing in present know-how or ready for designs new know-how. The Greek order e book as of the primary half of 2023 is down 20%, nonetheless, twin gasoline vessels stand at a whopping 34% of the full order e book. By way of most well-liked ship sort, LNG and tankers are on the high particularly with massive house owners reminiscent of Angelicoussis Group and Marinakis (Nor-Transport 2023 – Tradewinds), however the development of being cautious in investing in new know-how stays.
Greek delivery is within the technique of an power transition. The affect of emissions laws on ship choice, ordering, emissions saving gadgets, twin fuels, and technological advances tremendously affect house owners’ choices. There’s additionally no new know-how seen on the horizon that would lead the business to zero emissions quickly.
With a lot uncertainty and constraints coupled with geopolitical tensions and sanctions, weak commerce flows, sluggish maritime commerce, asymmetrically excessive ship charges in comparison with prevailing shipments and excessive rates of interest, it isn’t uncommon for Greek house owners to take a break. 2022 of their funding choices. The one exception was dry bulk, whose fortunes weakened because the 12 months progressed.
It’s now clear that the seriousness and affect of emissions laws are getting nearer and stronger. Lenders have additionally expressed their choice for and curiosity in eco/twin gasoline vessels. Within the second-hand market, exercise has waned though there’s a development of divestment by Greek house owners in tankers and substitute with dry tons.
On the whole, the Greek fleet is predicted to report some contraction within the subsequent two years. Petrovin concluded that, although, the restoration is predicted to renew when new constructing deliveries and web S&P purchases choose up in 2024/25.
Supply: Petrovin Analysis